Unprecedented Catastrophes Have Non-Canonical Probabilities
The chance of a bridge failing, of an asteroid striking the earth, of whether your child will get into Harvard, and of whether ai will kill everyone are all things that can be expressed with probability, but they are not all the same type of probability. There is a structural difference in the "probability" between a bridge collapsing with a $10^{-6}$ chance, versus saying "my P(doom) is 15%".
I use algorithmic information theory and computability to characterize the structural conditions under which Bayesian updating fails to resolve framework-level disagreement. This provides a criterion for when Knightian uncertainty is irreducible by data.